Texas and North Carolina 2026 Primary Kickoff: 5 Key Takeaways

Surprises and uncertainty dominated the evening after millions of Americans flocked to the polls on March 3, 2026, kicking off the high-stakes midterm elections that will largely serve as a referendum on President Donald Trump's return to power. The Texas and North Carolina primaries delivered unexpected results, incumbent defeats, and set the stage for contentious runoffs that will extend the primary season deep into spring.

1. Texas Senate Race Heads to Runoff

In the most closely watched contest of the night, longtime Senator John Cornyn failed to secure the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. As of Wednesday morning, Cornyn led Paxton by approximately 26,000 votes out of 2.1 million counted, with Cornyn receiving about 47% and Paxton garnering 42% in the three-way race that also included Rep. Wesley Hunt.

The May 26 runoff will be one of the ugliest intraparty battles of the cycle. Paxton, who survived impeachment proceedings in 2023, has positioned himself as the more Trump-aligned candidate, despite Cornyn's long tenure and institutional support. The 12-week extension of this primary fight will drain Republican resources and attention in what should be a safe GOP seat.

2. First Congressional Incumbent Falls

Rep. Dan Crenshaw, the eyepatch-wearing former Navy SEAL who became a Republican star after his 2018 election, became the first congressional incumbent to lose a primary in 2026. State Rep. Steve Toth defeated Crenshaw in Texas's 2nd Congressional District, marking a stunning upset that sent shockwaves through the GOP establishment.

Crenshaw was notably the only Republican congressman seeking re-election in Tuesday's primaries who didn't have Trump's backing. His defeat signals the continued dominance of Trump's influence over the Republican Party and suggests that incumbents without the former president's endorsement remain vulnerable, even those with national profiles and strong fundraising.

3. Talarico Upsets Crockett in Texas Senate Democratic Primary

In an expensive and fiercely contested Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Texas state Rep. James Talarico defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, one of the party's rising stars. The race attracted national attention and millions in outside spending, with Crockett enjoying support from progressive groups and Talarico building a coalition of moderate Democrats and crossover voters.

Talarico's victory raises questions about the direction of the Texas Democratic Party and whether a more moderate approach can compete in a state that has trended increasingly red. His win also represents a setback for the Congressional Black Caucus, which had rallied behind Crockett's campaign.

4. Voting Changes Cause Confusion and Long Lines

New voting restrictions implemented by Republican-controlled counties in Texas led to widespread confusion and hours-long wait times at polling places. Dallas County and Williamson County eliminated countywide voting, requiring residents to cast ballots only at their assigned precinct—a change from years of allowing voters to use any polling location in their county.

The policy shift resulted in voters showing up at the wrong locations, being turned away, and in some cases giving up entirely. Voting rights advocates documented numerous instances of voters, particularly in minority communities, facing obstacles to casting their ballots. The controversy is likely to fuel ongoing debates about voting access heading into the November general election.

5. North Carolina Delivers Few Surprises

While Texas dominated headlines, North Carolina's primaries proceeded with fewer upsets. Governor Roy Cooper's endorsed candidates largely prevailed in Democratic contests, while Trump-backed Republicans swept their races. The results suggest North Carolina remains a true swing state where both parties' establishments maintain significant influence, unlike Texas where insurgent candidates found more success.

The state's gubernatorial race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in the nation, with both parties' nominees emerging from Tuesday's contests ready for what promises to be a bruising general election campaign.

Looking Ahead

The March 3 primaries set the tone for what promises to be a contentious midterm election cycle. With Trump's influence still dominant in Republican primaries, establishment figures like Cornyn face uncertain futures. Meanwhile, Democrats must navigate internal divisions between progressive and moderate wings while confronting new voting restrictions in key states.

The Texas Senate runoff on May 26 will be the next major test, potentially providing further insight into whether Trump's endorsement remains the most valuable commodity in Republican politics or if voters are beginning to prioritize other factors. For now, the message from Texas and North Carolina is clear: expect the unexpected in 2026.